Making You Understand More About Odds Against Hole In One

The Hole-in-one is a revered play among golfers, many of whom wonder what their odds against hole in one are. Mathematically speaking, the odds of making such a play vary with the source and the numbers used in the calculation. The major problem faced by many is that no one seems to know the exact number of aces made each year. While many organizations track hole-in-ones, aces are rarely reported and if reported, it is difficult to establish the truth behind them.

In the year 1999, the magazine Golf Digest reported that according to one insurance company, a professional's chances of making a hole-in-one at the PGA Tour were 1 in 3,756 and those of an amateur 1 in 12,750. The issues went on to report that the odds that an amateur was to make two holes-in-one in a single round are 9,222,500 to 1. The National Hole in One Club of Ireland puts the odds acing a hole on any swing at one in 33,000. An article citing Sports Illustrated on Navy Newsstand put the odds at 45,000 to 1, for making a hole-in-one on a par-3 golf hole.

Insurance companies who offer hole-in-one covers to tournament promoters put the odds of holing from 150 yards between ten thousand and fifteen thousand to one. Francis Scheid, a retired math department chair at Boston University was hired by Golf Digest to calculate the odds. He came up with a 5,000 to 1 for a low handicapper and 12,000 to 1 for an average player. A low handicapper who plays a thousand rounds has a 20 percent chance of making an ace, according to Scheid. If you play 5000 rounds, then your odds stand at 1:1.

The study by the Golf Digest magazine provided a wealth of wisdom. In addition to this, the study broke down the odds by quality of play. For a tour player, the odds of making an ace are at 3000 to 1. For a low handicapper: 5000 to 1, for an average player: 12000 to 1. Other highlights from Scheid's calculations indicate that the odds of an average player acing a 200-yard hole stood at 150,000 to 1. For two players from a similar foursome hitting an ace on the same hole, the odds are 17 million to 1. For one player to make two holes-in-one during the same round, the odds are 67 million to 1.